by Trever Dahms
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21 October 2026
If you've ever sat through a presentation about long-term care, you've probably heard this one: about 70% of people turning 65 will need long-term care at some point. I've used that number myself. It's true, and it matters. But a recent article on InsuranceNewsNet, What 70% doesn't tell you , made me rethink how I talk about it. The author, Chuck Greenblott, has run nursing homes and advised families on their finances, and his point is simple: a statistic isn't a plan. I think it's worth a few minutes of your time, so here's my quick summary and what it means for families here in the Tampa Bay area. The quick summary Where the 70% comes from: A 2019 study from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services found that 70% of adults who reach age 65 will develop severe long-term care needs before they pass. "Severe" meant needing help with at least two everyday activities, like bathing or dressing, for 90 days or more, or having serious memory or cognitive problems. The number hiding in plain sight: In that same study, only 48% received any paid care. The difference between 70% and 48% is people who needed serious help and got it only from unpaid caregivers, usually family. The big idea: The 70% figure tells you how likely you are to need help. It doesn't tell you who will provide it, how long it will last, what it will cost, or what you or your family might have to give up. Greenblott suggests starting with real questions about your life instead of leading with a number. My take: three things worth thinking about 1. Unpaid care is not free care When a spouse or adult child steps in to help, nobody sends a bill. But that help often comes with a real price: cutting back hours at work, lost income, smaller retirement savings, and a toll on the caregiver's own health. I see this all the time. A plan that quietly assumes "my wife will take care of me" or "my daughter lives nearby" is still a plan, but it should be a conscious one that you've actually talked through with them. 2. Not everyone has a built-in caregiver Many people don't have a spouse at home or an adult child down the street. That's especially true here in Florida, where so many retirees moved away from family to enjoy the sunshine. If you live alone, the most urgent question isn't "Will I need care?" It's "Who will actually be there, and who do I trust to make decisions if I can't?" 3. The real goal is keeping your choices Good planning isn't about buying a policy because a scary number came up on a slide. It's about protecting the things that matter to you: staying in your own home as long as possible, choosing who cares for you, protecting your spouse's lifestyle, and not having your savings drained in a crisis. A little more context: what care costs and what Medicare covers What care costs in Florida. According to the 2024 Genworth and CareScout Cost of Care Survey, the median annual cost in Florida was about $68,640 for a home health aide and about $63,885 for assisted living. Nationally, the 2025 survey puts the median for assisted living at $6,200 a month, or $74,400 a year, up 5% from the year before. Nursing home care runs higher: Caring.com estimates a semi-private room in Tampa at roughly $9,900 a month. Costs vary by provider and keep rising, so treat these as ballpark figures. What Medicare does and doesn't cover. This surprises a lot of people. Medicare does not pay for long-term custodial care, which is help with daily activities like bathing, dressing, and eating. It can cover a short stay in a skilled nursing facility after a qualifying hospital stay of at least three days, but only while you need skilled care, and for no more than 100 days, with a daily copay after day 20. Medicaid can pay for long-term care, but it has strict income and asset limits, which often means spending down savings first. In other words, for most families the bill lands on their own savings or on their family's time unless they plan ahead. Ways people plan for it There's no one-size-fits-all answer, and that's exactly why the conversation matters. Common options include: Traditional long-term care insurance: dedicated coverage for care at home, in assisted living, or in a nursing home. Hybrid life and long-term care policies: life insurance that lets you use the benefit for care if you need it. If you never need care, your beneficiaries receive the death benefit. Life insurance with chronic illness riders: some policies, including many indexed universal life (IUL) policies, let you access part of the death benefit early if you can't perform daily activities. Annuities with long-term care features: certain annuities can increase your income or provide extra benefits if you need care. A self-funding plan: setting aside specific assets and knowing exactly how you'd use them. The legal pieces: a durable power of attorney and a designated health care surrogate, ideally set up with an estate planning attorney, so the people you trust can act for you. Questions worth asking yourself Before you think about any product, sit with these: If I needed help tomorrow, who would realistically be there? What would helping me cost them in time, money, and health? Where would I want to receive care: at home, in assisted living, or somewhere else? What am I most afraid of losing? Who would make decisions for me if I couldn't, and do they know my wishes? Let's talk it through If these questions stirred something up, that's a good thing. My approach is education first and no pressure. We start with your situation and your goals, and only then look at whether any coverage makes sense. As an independent broker, I work with 70+ carriers, so I can compare options rather than push a single company's product. If you're in Pinellas, Hillsborough, or Pasco County and want to talk through your long-term care plan, give me a call at (727) 314-3114 or visit tdcoverage.com .